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Politics·Alaska Midterm

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola 71%

Sen. Dan Sullivan 29%

Ann Diener <1%

Dustin Darden <1%

Polymarket
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct0%25%50%75%100%
Source: polymarket.foo

$2,096,082 Vol.

Recent polling averages show Democrat Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in this ranked-choice voting contest, with Peltola at roughly 47-51% and Sullivan at 42-48% across late October surveys. Peltola's substantial fundraising edge and endorsements have helped sustain trader consensus favoring her win probability near 71%, reflecting expectations that she consolidates second-choice support. The presence of a namesake challenger, Daniel J. Sullivan, has triggered a state investigation ordered by Gov. Mike Dunleavy and a federal lawsuit seeking to delay certification of results if voter confusion arises, introducing legal risks that could extend resolution beyond Election Day on November 3. These factors, combined with the race's potential impact on Senate balance, explain the current market positioning ahead of early voting and final ballot counting.

Volume
$2,096,082
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x2f5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Alaska Senate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mary Peltola" at 72%, followed by "Sen. Dan Sullivan" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Alaska Senate Election Winner" has generated $2.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Alaska Senate Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Alaska Senate Election Winner" is "Mary Peltola" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sen. Dan Sullivan" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Alaska Senate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
    Alaska Senate Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarket