Recent polling in the open Iowa Senate race shows a tight contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, with averages near 46% each and most forecasters rating it a toss-up ahead of the November 3 election. Hinson has gained a narrow edge in several late-October surveys, including InsiderAdvantage and co/efficient, after earlier polls favored Turek. Both candidates stress independence from their parties on key Iowa issues such as agriculture, rural healthcare, prescription costs, and border security, while heavy outside spending and fundraising continue in the final week. The state's Republican tilt from the 2024 presidential results and Hinson's House experience contribute to trader consensus favoring her at current levels, though small margins leave room for shifts from turnout or late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIowa Senate Election Winner
Source: polymarket.foo
Ashley Hinson (R)53%
Josh Turek (D)48%
$1,209,114 Vol.
$1,209,114 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ashley Hinson (R)
53%
Josh Turek (D)
48%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling in the open Iowa Senate race shows a tight contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, with averages near 46% each and most forecasters rating it a toss-up ahead of the November 3 election. Hinson has gained a narrow edge in several late-October surveys, including InsiderAdvantage and co/efficient, after earlier polls favored Turek. Both candidates stress independence from their parties on key Iowa issues such as agriculture, rural healthcare, prescription costs, and border security, while heavy outside spending and fundraising continue in the final week. The state's Republican tilt from the 2024 presidential results and Hinson's House experience contribute to trader consensus favoring her at current levels, though small margins leave room for shifts from turnout or late developments.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party....
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party....
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Volume
$1,209,114End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Iowa Senate Election WinnerAshley Hinson (R)·Yes
Amount
$
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