Recent polling averages place the Kansas Senate race in a toss-up, with Adam Hamilton and incumbent Roger Marshall separated by just one to three points across multiple surveys through late October. Hamilton’s background as founding pastor of the state’s largest United Methodist congregation, combined with his former Republican registration and emphasis on an affordability agenda, has broadened his appeal and enabled substantial gains since early September. Marshall retains advantages from incumbency, Trump endorsement, and focus on agriculture and traditional issues, yet faces headwinds from low favorability tied to past patient lawsuits. With Election Day on November 3, shifts in rural turnout, suburban margins, or any final-week developments could widen the gap before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKansas Senate Election Winner
Source: polymarket.foo
Roger Marshall (R)52%
Adam Hamilton (D)48%
$1,510,454 Vol.
$1,510,454 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
52%
Adam Hamilton (D)
48%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages place the Kansas Senate race in a toss-up, with Adam Hamilton and incumbent Roger Marshall separated by just one to three points across multiple surveys through late October. Hamilton’s background as founding pastor of the state’s largest United Methodist congregation, combined with his former Republican registration and emphasis on an affordability agenda, has broadened his appeal and enabled substantial gains since early September. Marshall retains advantages from incumbency, Trump endorsement, and focus on agriculture and traditional issues, yet faces headwinds from low favorability tied to past patient lawsuits. With Election Day on November 3, shifts in rural turnout, suburban margins, or any final-week developments could widen the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,510,454End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Kansas Senate Election WinnerRoger Marshall (R)·Yes
Amount
$
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