Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
Politics·Election

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

None 26%

ME 12.1%

IA, KS 12%

IA 8.7%

Polymarket
12:00 PM12:00 AM12:00 PM12:00 AM12:00 PM0%15%30%45%60%
Source: polymarket.foo

$252,229 Vol.

Recent polling in the final week before the November 3, 2026, midterms shows Democrats holding narrow leads or statistical ties in most of the listed swing states, including Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, and Kansas, with Iowa remaining the closest. This environment, marked by low presidential approval and Democratic gains in traditionally Republican territory, underpins trader preference for “None” as the top outcome and for limited combinations such as Iowa plus Kansas. Iowa and Kansas stand apart as the relatively strongest Republican-leaning contests among the seven, while Michigan, Texas, and Ohio reflect deeper Democratic advantages in recent surveys. With only days remaining, final turnout, late advertising, and any unforeseen developments could still shift individual race margins and consolidate support behind a narrower set of Republican wins.

Volume
$252,229
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 26, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

Beware of external links.

Little-Anguish
holy shit, just looking at all the options gave me more anxiety than actually having money on all the other midterm markets
0x5c161DC853Efa5...
man the volume is sooo low how much would one of you fill me for on IA, TX, KS???

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 128+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "None" at 26%, followed by "ME" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?" has generated $252.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?," browse the 128+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?" is "None" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ME" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
icon for Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?None·Yes

Amount

$

Related

icon for Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?

Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?

49%
icon for Will Democrats win the Michigan, Texas, and Ohio Senate seats?

Will Democrats win the Michigan, Texas, and Ohio Senate seats?

91%
icon for Will Democrats win the Ohio, Iowa, and Maine Senate seats?

Will Democrats win the Ohio, Iowa, and Maine Senate seats?

34%
    Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? Predictio... 2026 | Polymarket