Polymarket

Dec 9

Jan 27, 2027

Mar 17, 2027

Apr 28, 2027

25 bps increase 77%

No change 22%

50+ bps increase 1.9%

25 bps decrease <1%

Source: polymarket.foo

$8,046,723 Vol.

Dec 9, 2026

50+ bps decrease

$1,460,541 Vol.

<1%

25 bps decrease

$1,601,568 Vol.

<1%

No change

$1,967,848 Vol.

22%

25 bps increase

$1,925,978 Vol.

77%

50+ bps increase

$1,090,787 Vol.

Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET

Volume

$8,046,723

End Date

Dec 9, 2026

Market Opened

Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

Beware of external links.

Holders

Beware of external links.

alpaje

1d ago

yeah the fed markets are boring af

Justaway.exe

22h ago

@alpaje

yea you might require economics classes

whumpa

21h ago

@alpaje

only the meeting part when it's Warsh

AlexxHamilton

1d ago

Hike for 9th Dec for sure .

Giorgio2

1d ago

Good ;)

1d ago

Nice

1d ago

1d ago

Ez money

Evlampius

1d ago

2 dissenters this time Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, but 10-2 in favor of no change.

yen4u

1d ago

what's a fed rate

NukeTheIRS

1d ago

@yen4u

consumer loan interest rates for federal employees

conormurphy

1d ago

hit the road dude

maclogcy

1d ago

wow, i won this

AlexxHamilton

1d ago

No Change

Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed Decision in December?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25 bps increase" at 77%, followed by "No change" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Fed Decision in December?" has generated $8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Fed Decision in December?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Fed Decision in December?" is "25 bps increase" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No change" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Fed Decision in December?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Fed Decision in December?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $8 million traded on “Fed Decision in December?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Fed Decision in December?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 77¢ for "25 bps increase" in the "Fed Decision in December?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 77% chance that "25 bps increase" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 77¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 23¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Fed Decision in December?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 9, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Fed Decision in December?" market has an active community of 9,715 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Fed Decision in December?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Fed Decision in December?

Rules

Market Context

Comments (9,715)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Fed Decision in December?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Fed Decision in December?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Fed Decision in December?"?

What are the current odds for "Fed Decision in December?"?

How will "Fed Decision in December?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Fed Decision in December?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Fed Decision in December?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Fed Decision in December?"?

What does a price of 77¢ for "25 bps increase" mean?

When does the "Fed Decision in December?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Fed Decision in December?"?

What is Polymarket?

Related