Recent polling has positioned Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by 3 to 7 points in Michigan's open Senate race, with multiple late-October surveys of likely voters showing El-Sayed at 49-51% and Rogers at 42-45%. El-Sayed has consolidated Democratic support more effectively while gaining ground among independents and women, trends that emerged after the August primary and strengthened as early voting began. The race for the seat vacated by retiring Senator Gary Peters remains within historical margins for the state, though recent averages and forecasts reflect El-Sayed's edge with one week until Election Day. Prediction market pricing aligns with this polling consensus on the frontrunner's position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichigan Senate Election Winner
Source: polymarket.foo
Abdul El-Sayed (D)73%
Mike Rogers (R)28%
$3,342,958 Vol.
$3,342,958 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
73%
Mike Rogers (R)
28%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling has positioned Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by 3 to 7 points in Michigan's open Senate race, with multiple late-October surveys of likely voters showing El-Sayed at 49-51% and Rogers at 42-45%. El-Sayed has consolidated Democratic support more effectively while gaining ground among independents and women, trends that emerged after the August primary and strengthened as early voting began. The race for the seat vacated by retiring Senator Gary Peters remains within historical margins for the state, though recent averages and forecasts reflect El-Sayed's edge with one week until Election Day. Prediction market pricing aligns with this polling consensus on the frontrunner's position.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party....
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party....
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$3,342,958End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Michigan Senate Election WinnerAbdul El-Sayed (D)·Yes
Amount
$
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