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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

$29,291,447 Vol.

Oct 28, 2026
Polymarket
Ongoing Qatari-mediated talks present Iran with a new draft ceasefire proposal featuring a shortened timeline of confidence-building steps, including potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, partial sanctions relief, and nuclear inspections, with Tehran’s response expected by the end of the week. The US maintains its naval blockade and economic pressure while rejecting earlier Iranian seven-day plans, citing demands on enriched uranium and permanent Hormuz access. Indirect channels via Pakistan and other mediators continue amid mutual distrust, recent Israeli actions in Lebanon, and Iranian threats of escalation. US midterm elections on November 3 and possible follow-up meetings in Turkey add near-term variables that could shift the trajectory of any de-escalation agreement.

Volume
$29,291,447
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 14, 2026, 9:30 AM ET

Beware of external links.

adasol
Iran denies new Qatar proposal to end hostilities with US, calls Doha’s ideas unacceptable - Reuters
Now someone tell me if there will be another war or not.
ViprozXz
Remember November 1 isn't listed.
hivemindilan
@ViprozXz
Yeah i have a feeling they are gonna fuck all of us and start the night between the 31 and the 1st.
ViprozXz
They are going to start the war before Mid-Term elections and after Israel elections.
adasol
Qatar says Iran must stop threats and reopen Hormuz for mediation to succeed Iran must show good intentions, stop threatening Arab states and reopen the Strait of Hormuz for mediation efforts to succeed, the Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday. Qatar is doing a very "good" job as a mediator :))
Pimpalistas2007
Pimpalistas2007
Yoo you knou you can resolve october 24th?
adasol
Tehran has accused Washington of not being serious about negotiations, while security risks in the Gulf continue to escalate with UKMTO reporting a vessel caught fire 63 nautical miles (117km) southeast of al-Faw, Iraq
conormurphy
someone gonna propose oct 24 or no lol

Frequently Asked Questions

"US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 28" at 100%, followed by "September 20" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" has generated $29.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" is "October 28" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 20" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?October 28·Yes

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    US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarket